On the day of the most important game of the 2021 season, Mallory Pugh found herself in an unwanted spotlight, causing the odds to shift even further in favor of the Chicago Red Stars over Portland Thorns FC.
Chicago will take on Portland in the NWSL Championship without their top attacker on Sunday at 4:30 p.m. CT on CBS Sports Network. The Illinois sportsbooks’ lines show the impact of Pugh’s absence on the Red Stars’ offense.
Al sportsbooks’ final predictions for the Chicago Red Stars
In short, Chicago is a clear underdog at Providence Park on Sunday. The stats and important games happening on the field back this up, especially with Pugh being removed from the lineup due to testing positive for COVID-19. It is unclear if Pugh has been vaccinated against COVID-19.
| Operator | Red Stars to triumph | Draw | Thorns will triumph |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook BetRivers | +315 | +230 | -134 |
| Sportsbook DraftKings | +370 | +260 | -130 |
| Sportsbook PointsBet | +350 | +250 | -120 |
Pugh was the top scorer for the team in the regular season, netting five goals and sealing the victory in the final game last weekend. She played a crucial role in the Red Stars’ improving offensive performance.
Chicago’s expected goal rate has seen a significant increase, but without Pugh in the lineup, bettors may anticipate a regression towards the mean on Sunday. Pugh’s absence also makes it easier for Portland to defend against other attackers, such as Kealia Watt.
The numbers show that the Thorns are not the same team that beat Chicago 5-0 in both regular-season openers, which is a small comfort for Red Stars fans. It is also encouraging to see that the Red Stars can still compete in other areas of the field.
Chicago & rsquo, s loaded back and midfields, diminished XG, and Portland’s
Chicago’s XG has been on the rise at a crucial moment, while the Thorns’ XG has been declining. In fact, Portland experienced a stretch of matches in the middle of the regular season with an XG below one.
As regular time came to a close, the score stabilized around 1.1. Punters must consider the value of the Thorns having the next weekend off when evaluating this match.
The Red Stars could greatly benefit from the fresh legs in their back end and midfield. However, Chicago is already strong in those areas heading into this match. Despite the absence of defender Casey Krueger due to illness, the Red Stars were able to stymie a talented NJ/NY Gotham FC attack last weekend.
Sarah Gorden and Tierna Davidson are the backbone of the team’s defense, while the midfield will play a crucial role in determining the team’s success. Key players like Danielle Colaprico, Morgan Gautrat, and Sarah Woldmoe will be essential in maintaining accurate passing and winning 50/50 balls.
Throughout the year, Chicago has consistently struggled when playing away from SeatGeek Stadium compared to their performances at home. An example of this was on September 25, when they managed to defeat the Thorns club 2-1 in Bridgeview.
Due to Portland’s strong start to the season, the Thorns have not faced a truly competitive match in over a month. They have accumulated enough points to comfortably maintain their lead and secure the Shield.
IL sportsbooks initially considered Portland to be the stronger team before Pugh’s absence was revealed. Those who bet on the Red Stars despite the odds will be ecstatic if they can secure a victory in the championship game without her.
