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After conducting his Illinois sports betting experiment for forty-one days, Steve Brubaker is worried about his findings and is calling for regulators to investigate what he suspects may be a “predatory” practice.
The Illinois lobbyist has been placing a $1 bet daily on FanDuel’s pre-made single-game parlay and sharing the outcomes on Twitter. Out of the 41 bets made so far, only one has been successful. It took Brubaker 26 consecutive days before finally hitting a win.
He acknowledged that his experiment is based on a limited sample size and that his findings are not scientifically proven or conclusive. Nevertheless, he emphasized that his observations are alarming enough to justify additional research. Additionally, it underscores the importance of implementing responsible gambling measures in Illinois.
Brubaker expressed concerns that the items could be predatory and hopes that a regulator will investigate further, as he has followers who are regulators on Twitter.
FanDuel was given the opportunity to provide a statement regarding this story, but has chosen not to comment.
Brubaker’s Illinois sports betting experiment
While at his Florida home over Christmas, Brubaker came up with the idea for the experiment.
Brubaker recalled reading a statement from Amy Howe, the CEO of FanDuel, stating that 40% of their handle originated from their app’s homepage. Intrigued by this information, Brubaker decided to visit the homepage to investigate further. Upon visiting the site, Brubaker noticed that the majority of the page was dedicated to promoting the same-game parlay feature that FanDuel offers.
Brubaker waited until he returned to Illinois to start the test, as sports betting is not legal in Florida. He placed his first bet on Jan. 20, following the proviso to bet $1 on whatever pre-made SGP FanDuel offered when he first logged onto the app each day.
“I never evaluate the options, I just bet on whatever comes up on my screen,” he stated. “I always go with the first choice presented to me.”
Fully aware Illinois sportsbooks are in business to win more than lose
Brubaker emphasized additional points, noting that other Illinois sportsbooks also provide pre-made single-game parlays. However, FanDuel was chosen for the test due to their superior performance and higher frequency in offering this feature compared to other competitors.
He believes that the entire practice should be investigated, regardless of the operator. His main concern is the sportsbooks creating the SGPs.
Brubaker stated that he believes regulators would find a significant difference in win-loss ratios if they compared parlays and SGPs created by bettors to those created by FanDuel.
Even though he claimed not to be a frequent sports bettor, Brubaker, a lobbyist specializing in gambling law issues, possesses a deep understanding of the inner workings of the industry.
He said that if it appears they are unfairly influencing the outcome, they should not be permitted to sell that product. He clarified that he is not accusing them of doing so, but it is possible that it might be occurring.
Naturally, they aim to come out ahead more often than not. That’s the nature of gambling, and it’s common knowledge. However, if they are cheating in any way, they shouldn’t be permitted to participate. If I choose to engage in a risky Single Game Parlay and end up losing, that’s my own responsibility.
Buyer beware that these bets often change
Additionally, Brubaker expressed his concern that FanDuel may be enticing individuals to wager on their pre-made SGPs by highlighting the fluctuating number of people who have placed a bet on them.
Brubaker mentioned that when he places a bet, the first thing he sees is the number of people who have placed the same bet, along with a small orange fire graphic in the upper right or left corner. He believes this visual element is designed to make people feel more at ease. However, he has observed that even if the odds or players in the bet are altered, the number of participants remains constant.
Brubaker stated that if any aspects of the bet were to change, the counter indicating the number of participants should be reset.
Brubaker explained, “It’s a unique wager. So they can’t claim that 6,721 individuals made the same bet as mine, then alter it and maintain the number. That poses an issue.”
Brubaker recorded Wednesday’s wager in the following manner:
“I believe they are designed to appear attractive in order to attract bets. That’s my theory for this entire experiment,” Brubaker stated.
Odds appear better than scratch-off lottery tickets, but are they?
Brubaker expressed his curiosity about the odds of winning in these bets compared to scratch-off lottery tickets. He intends to test this by betting on pre-made same-game parlays for 50 days straight and then purchasing 50 scratch-off lottery tickets to compare the frequency of his wins.
“Approximately half of the SGP selections are under 10-1 odds, which hasn’t resulted in significant wins for me yet. I have come to view them more as lottery tickets or scratch-off cards rather than traditional sports bets. As a result, I have decided to include scratchers in my betting experiment, with the plan to compare the results after 50 days of each.”
According to Keith Whyte, executive director of the National Council on Problem Gambling, the nature of sports betting may give bettors a false sense of having an advantage.
Whyte noted that most sports bettors enter a bet with some level of information, feeling that they are making an informed decision. However, he explained that when books promote parlays with higher holds, it becomes evident that they have access to significantly more data than the bettors. This is especially true when it comes to calculating odds and creating complex bets, as evidenced by the discovery that many parlays, seemingly constructed by the books themselves, are not favorable for the bettor.
NCPG: these parlays could be a issue for problem gamblers
Whyte mentioned that determining the accurate odds of these individual game parlays could be a challenge in this situation.
Whyte explained that a key aspect of our strategy for informed player choice is ensuring that players are aware of the odds. However, he noted that single-game parlays present a challenge as they can be very complex for most individuals to calculate and comprehend in order to make a well-informed decision.
Whyte stated that for casual gamblers who place small bets in hopes of winning a larger payout, SGPs may seem less concerning.
He said that the incredible jackpot payouts and slim odds may appeal more to casual bettors who see it as just a dollar and a dream.
The problem is more severe for individuals struggling with it.
According to Whyte, the issue arises when individuals become desperate after losing a significant amount of money and start chasing a big win, or when they believe their extensive knowledge of sports gives them an advantage to overcome extremely unlikely odds.
Signs you may have a gambling problem
Whyte advised that gamblers should always be mindful of potential signs indicating a gambling problem. Some questions for bettors to consider are:
- Are you gambling for enjoyment or out of necessity?
- Are you risking money that you can’t afford to lose, or are you using funds that are necessary to cover your expenses?
- Are you gambling due to feelings of sadness, or are you gambling for enjoyment?
Whyte explained that products such as single-game parlays have unique structural features that may attract specific bettors or provide advantages to certain individuals. However, ultimately, the decision to engage in these types of bets depends on the individual’s reasons for betting. For example, someone who is betting due to feelings of depression may struggle with the complexities of a single-game parlay.
Where in Illinois you can get help for problem gambling
The NCPG provides a list of resources in Illinois for individuals seeking assistance with problem gambling, such as:
National Problem Gambling Helpline
Call: 1-800-522-4700
Text: 1-800-522-4700
Chat: ncpgambling.org/chat
and
Illinois Problem Gambling Council
Helpline: 800.522.4700
Website: www.icpg.info
Self help resources
• Gamblers Anonymous is a supportive community of individuals, available at www.gamblersanonymous.org, who come together to share their stories, offer strength and provide hope to one another in order to overcome their shared struggle with gambling addiction and assist others in their journey to recovery.
Gam-Anon is a self-help organization for spouses, family members, or close friends of individuals struggling with compulsive gambling. Visit www.gam-anon.org for more information.
GamTalk is an online peer support forum that is moderated 24/7.
