When betting on sports, a common initial question for many is: Which team is playing at home? The general assumption is that the home team holds a considerable edge in the game.

There is a heated debate within sports betting communities regarding the importance of home-field advantage. This discussion has gained even more traction with the increasing legalization of sports betting in numerous states, including Illinois.

We will explore the concept of home-field advantage, discussing whether it benefits the home team and its value in betting.

What is the home field advantage?

Team sports sometimes have matches at neutral venues, but typically one team plays at their home ground while the other team travels to compete.

The phrase “home-field advantage” refers to the perceived advantage a team has when playing on their own turf. This advantage is thought to be due to the lack of travel and familiarity with the surroundings. In contrast, the visiting team may face a more challenging situation.

In a game with a packed stadium of cheering fans supporting the home team, there may be a significant advantage. Home-field advantage is a key factor in predicting game results, but not all home teams are equally strong.

Why do some teams perform better at home than others?

As the season unfolds, patterns will emerge in sports. The best teams will rise to the top, the less successful ones will fall to the bottom, and the rest will vie for a middle ground.

When it comes to gambling, some teams consistently perform well against the spread or on over/under bets, while others struggle in both areas. This trend can also be seen when looking at team records for home and away games.

Certain teams will enjoy a greater advantage over their visiting opponents compared to others. This may be attributed to their strong performance throughout the year or the strong support from their home crowd.

Therefore, certain venues are known for being particularly difficult for visiting teams. For example, the Seattle Seahawks’ home games at CenturyLink Field in the NFL, or the Duke Blue Devils’ college basketball games at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

In addition to crowd noise, factors such as travel conditions, like a team traveling from the East Coast to the West Coast or vice versa, and a bias towards the home team in decision-making could impact various sports. It is important to consider how these factors may affect each sport and analyze key statistics related to home advantage.

Home field advantage, by sports

This study examines the influence of home field advantage on various sports.

How it works in NFL

The NFL is the focal point of sports betting and attracts a large amount of attention. The potential advantage for the home team is a popular topic of discussion leading up to each game.

In the 2019 season, teams played a total of 256 games over 17 weeks in the regular season. Here is a summary of their performance.

• Home Team Record: 132-123-1
• The home team emerged victorious in 51.8% of all games played.

In 2019, home teams won slightly more than half of the games, indicating a slight advantage. It is worth considering that this analysis is based on just one year of data, which is a limited sample size. The advantage of playing at home could potentially be more pronounced in different years.

In NFL games, home teams typically have a slight advantage, but this advantage is much more pronounced when the home team is one of the top teams in the league. When betting on NFL games, it’s important to consider several other key factors as well.

• Weather is the crucial element to keep an eye on when teams from warmer regions are playing in colder conditions.
• Is the fanbase at this venue usually lively, or does the home team lack enthusiasm?
• Game Time: A Western team traveling east for an early kickoff may feel the effects, while an Eastern team heading west for a late start could be thrown off-balance.

How it works in NBA

NBA teams that have more frequent games are typically involved in road trips. It is important to consider the impact of home court advantage when placing bets on games. During the 2018-19 regular season, home teams had the following performance record:

• Home Team Record: 729-501
• The home team emerged victorious in 59.3% of all games played.

In comparison to the NFL, this advantage is much larger. It is crucial to keep in mind that this data only reflects one season, and there may be other years where the winning percentage is closer or lower.

When analyzing games, the main factors to consider are the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. If the clubs are evenly matched, it is typically advisable to give a slight advantage to the home team.

Consider the importance of the venue in games where the home team is heavily favored, but remember that the advantage may not be significant if a strong road team is facing a weak overall team. Keep in mind these additional key factors when placing bets on NBA games.

• Travel can give teams a disadvantage compared to those who have been playing on their home ground for an extended period of time.
• Rest: Analyze which team holds a rest advantage in challenging periods of the NBA season, like when teams have to play three games in four nights.
• Monitor the Arena: NBA teams often travel to different venues, so it’s crucial to review their recent performance at the current location over their last five to ten visits.

How it works in MLB

In the regular season, Major League Baseball (MLB) teams play series of two to four games without switching locations. They can choose to travel before or after the series. In 2019, home teams had the following performance record:

• Home Team Record: 1286-1143
• The home team emerged victorious in 52.9% of all games played.

During this specific season, the home team had a slight edge. It is worth noting that these statistics can vary from season to season. Some seasons may have a more even distribution, while others may have home teams winning between 53% and 54% of the time, for instance.

When researching, analyze the visiting team’s past performance at this stadium. Look at the outcomes of the last five to 10 games or explore trends over the last few years. When betting on baseball, take into account factors regarding home field advantage such as…

• In addition to the possibility of rain, take into account wind and temperature as they have a significant impact on the path of a flying baseball.
• Consider the park classification when evaluating lineups and totals, as some ballparks are pitcher-friendly while others are hitter-friendly.
• Future Challenges: While MLB teams do not have to travel daily, road trips and upcoming events can still be physically taxing.

How it works in NHL

The intimate setting of an NHL arena can create a palpable excitement throughout the venue, which can greatly influence the outcome of events, particularly in tight games and when a team is trying to mount a comeback. Reflecting on the 2018-19 season, let’s take a look at how the home team performed.

• Home Team Record: 682-445-144
• The home team was victorious in 53.7% of all games played.

The advantage of this single season sample size is slightly greater than what we see in MLB, but much smaller than the NBA. However, we will consider it significantly larger for the top teams and significantly smaller for the lower-performing teams in the league.

It is important to remember that unexpected results can happen in any matchup, regardless of the strength of the teams involved. When handicapping, it is essential to be able to identify possible upsets. Here are some extra factors to think about when placing bets on NHL games, particularly in relation to home ice advantage.

• When analyzing NHL games, consider the travel schedule of each team, as like the NBA, teams in the NHL can have extended periods of playing either on the road or at home.
• Rest plays a crucial role in the NHL, as seen when a well-rested home team takes on a visiting team playing their second game in three days. The effects of rest can greatly influence the outcome of the game.
• Venue Performance Record: To accurately assess a team’s strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to analyze their performance at the specific venue over the last 5-10 games, as teams may excel in some areas while facing challenges in others.

How it works in MLS

There is a growing interest in betting on MLS matches, especially with the option to place legal and secure bets in multiple states. Here is a list of the home-field events for the 2019 season:

• Home Team Record: 213-103-92
• The home team emerged victorious in 52.2% of all games.

While the benefit may not be significant, draws are common in MLS matches. When victories and draws are combined, the home team achieved one of these results in an impressive 74.8% of games. Here are some other factors to consider when discussing the home field advantage in MLS:

• Goal Differential: Home teams often have a significant advantage over visiting teams, so it is crucial to compare goal differentials for teams playing at home versus away.
• The principles of travel and rest that are important in other sports also apply to MLS, such as the challenges of long away games and the advantages of rest periods.
• Historical Venue Performance: It is undeniable that some teams excel in specific venues while struggling in others, so be sure to consider this when evaluating performance.

How it works with college football

The fanbases of college football teams play a significant role in creating the spectacle and traditions of the sport. The atmosphere at some stadiums can be overwhelmingly loud and intimidating for opposing teams. In the 2019 regular season, hosting teams were successful in creating this type of environment.

• Home Team Record: 541-287
• The home team emerged victorious in 65.3% of all games played.

This is a much larger advantage than what we have seen in the other team sports we have studied. Even though it is only for one year, having more than 65% of the winners is not something to ignore.

When placing bets on college football games, keep in mind that there may be notable disparities in the matchups, with powerhouse teams facing off against smaller schools with slim chances of winning. These discrepancies can have a major impact on the betting odds. It’s important to also consider the following key factors:

• Team Strength: Top-tier programs benefit greatly from playing at home, while mid-level teams also see some advantage. However, weaker teams do not experience the same home-field advantage.
• Fanbases vary in enthusiasm across sports, with some stadiums being significantly more energetic than others, especially when the home team is excelling during the season.
• Weather can have an impact on the performance of teams playing in conditions that are different from their usual, such as going from warm to cold or vice versa.

How it works with college basketball

The same principles that work for college football can also be effective in college basketball. The NCAAB has passionate fanbases that can have a significant impact, especially in the intimate setting of a basketball arena. Here are the home team records for the 2018-19 season:

• Home Team Record: 3609-1728
• The home team emerged victorious in 67.8% of all games played.

This is the highest score we have seen up to this point, but it is important to remember that it only applies to one year. Just like in college football, the non-conference schedule can have some uneven matchups that may affect the statistics. Here are some other important factors to keep in mind when considering the home-court advantage in NCAAB.

• Team Strength: The impact of home court advantage is more pronounced when there is a significant disparity in team strengths, but becomes less significant when teams are evenly matched.
• Fanbases can vary greatly in their levels of enthusiasm, with some reaching a fervor similar to NCAAF. This heightened energy can turn even smaller basketball arenas into incredibly noisy and lively environments.
• Travel: While the main concerns typically pertain to long trips, those who are able to spend more time at home have a natural edge.

Is home field advantage factored into betting odds?

Home field advantage is a key topic when discussing sports. Do oddsmakers factor in home field advantage when setting betting lines, or should you adjust your bets to consider it?

Illinois sportsbooks take into account the home field advantage when setting their numbers, along with other variables. A strong home favorite may receive a boost from playing in familiar territory. However, this advantage may not be as pronounced if the away team is also a top contender.

If a weak visiting team faces off against a strong home team, the home team is likely to have better odds of winning. Conversely, if the roles are switched, the visiting team may have the advantage. Although home field advantage is factored into sports betting odds, it is important to assess its potential influence on the outcome.

It is important to track team performance in both home and away games, comparing their results against the spread and totals in each situation. This can provide valuable information on how teams might fare against the betting lines you are examining.

How much is home field advantage worth in sports betting?

If you’re looking to comprehend a point spread and imagine the competition at a neutral location, what significance should be given to the home advantage? To elaborate, let’s walk through the process for basketball and football, the two most frequently wagered on sports in spread betting.

Home court advantage in basketball varies between professional and amateur levels. In the NBA, it is commonly believed that playing at home adds an extra 2.5 to 3.0 points to a team’s performance. In NCAAB, this advantage increases slightly to 3.0 to 3.5 points.

This means that when setting your lines or using a power ranking system, you should use this number as a starting point for the home team. Assuming all other factors are equal, NBA teams usually have a 2.5-3.0 point advantage when playing at home, while NCAAB teams typically have a 3.0-3.5 point advantage.

In football, both in the NFL and NCAAF, the common perception of home field advantage is usually seen as a 3.0 point advantage for the home team, equivalent to a field goal. However, historical data indicates that this figure may be either exaggerated or underestimated in certain cases.

As a result, some handicappers use a 2.5 point advantage for the home team in football, while others go even lower. In the case of very strong home teams, this number may be increased to a maximum of 3.5 points. Many bettors prefer to use a standard advantage, such as 2.3 points for football or 2.8 points for basketball, and use it across the board.

To quickly and easily find a solution, start with a lower level for both sports and adjust as needed. If the teams are evenly matched, a small home advantage should be sufficient. But if the home team is significantly stronger than their opponent, consider using a higher level of advantage.

What to remember about home field advantage

In team sports, there is typically a home team and a visiting team. It is widely acknowledged that the team playing on their home turf holds a slight advantage over their opponents who have traveled to the game.

The level of advantage to be used is a hotly discussed topic in the world of sports betting. Our analysis of seven major sports indicates that in a recent season, the home team tended to win more often.

Home teams had a more significant advantage in winning percentage in NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB compared to other sports. However, this trend may be influenced by potential scheduling mismatches in college sports.

Home teams in sports generally have an advantage that varies depending on the teams’ strengths. The advantage is usually greater for top-ranking teams playing on their home turf, especially when they are up against weaker opponents.

In games where teams are evenly matched, the advantage of playing at home is not as pronounced. Strong road teams can also mitigate this disadvantage. Therefore, while home field advantage should be taken into account, it should not be the sole determining factor in evaluating games.