How To Spot March Madness Upsets
March Madness is an event that captures the attention of both the sporting world and the general public. It is also one of the biggest betting events of the year.
Thanks to online sportsbooks, Illinois residents can now legally and securely bet on March Madness games from the comfort of their own homes. They can place their bets while watching all the exciting action unfold.
There are multiple theories on predicting March Madness upsets and much debate on the best strategy. One common question that arises is: How can potential upsets be identified before they happen?
In this detailed guide, we will cover the most common types of upsets and provide important information for you to keep in mind. Additionally, we will explore all the important details you need to know about one of the biggest sporting events of the year. Let’s get started.
How does March Madness work?
March Madness is the nickname for the yearly NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament. The “March” part comes from the fact that the tournament takes place during several action-packed weeks in that month. The “Madness” aspect is a nod to the exciting and unpredictable nature of the non-stop basketball games, where anything can happen.
The tournament’s roots can be traced back to 1939, when Oregon defeated Ohio State in the inaugural edition with only eight teams. Since then, the tournament has experienced substantial growth in the number of participating teams, reflecting the growing popularity of the event. Currently, 68 teams are invited to compete in the tournament.
If any of the 32 schools win their conference, they automatically qualify for the NCAA D1 Men’s Basketball Tournament. The remaining 36 teams, known as at-large bids, are selected by the Selection Committee based on various factors such as records and schedule strength. The committee carefully analyzes a range of data to determine which teams deserve an invitation to the tournament.
With 350 teams vying for a spot in college basketball’s D1 level, it is impossible to please everyone. Even when narrowing it down to the top 20-25% of teams, there is always controversy over those who are left out. However, the committee works diligently to ensure that only the best teams are selected to participate in March Madness.
March Madness seeding and brackets
The committee’s responsibilities extend beyond just determining which teams qualify for the tournament. In addition to that, they are also responsible for organizing the tournament bracket. This bracket serves as the foundation for various competitions and outlines the overall schedule of the tournament.
The tournament field is divided into four regions: East, South, Midwest, and West, each containing 16 teams ranked from 1-16 for a total of 64 teams. The remaining four teams will be placed in the appropriate regions to complete the bracket.
Established in 2011, The First Four was created to provide more teams with the opportunity to compete. In this format, eight teams are paired up for four games, with the winners advancing to fill out the bracket in each division. Here is a breakdown of the initial seed matchups for the 16 teams in each category.
- 1 vs. 16
- 2 vs. 15
- 3 vs. 14
- 4 vs. 13
- 5 vs. 12
- 6 vs. 11
- 7 vs. 10
- 8 vs. 9
The tournament follows a single-elimination format, where winners advance to the next round and losers are eliminated. Here is the schedule for the tournament, showing the number of games in each round.
- Opening Round: 4
- First round: 32
- Second round: 16
- Sweet 16: 8
- Elite Eight: 4
- Final Four: 2
- National Title: 1
During an exciting three-week span, a total of 67 games will be played. The second to last games are known as the Final Four, while the last game is called the National Championship game. These three events are some of the most popular for betting in all sports, with March Madness games also attracting a significant amount of basketball betting action.
Which seeds perform the best at March Madness?
The March Madness tournament field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 and has since grown to 68 teams. With over 30 years of competition, there is a vast amount of data available for analysis. Here are some important factors to consider.
- In four instances, an #11 seed has claimed one of the 70 available Final Four spots, making it the lowest seed to reach that stage.
- The win rates of the top four seeded teams in the first round are impressive. The team seeded first boasts a remarkable 99% win rate, followed by the second-seeded team at 94%, the third-seeded team at 85%, and the fourth-seeded team at 79%.
- Teams seeded 5-7 have a winning percentage of 61-64% in the first round, while seeds 8-9 have a 50% chance of winning, similar to a coin toss. Teams seeded 10th and lower have a winning percentage of 39% or less.
- Seeds 14 to 16 often struggle to advance beyond the first round, with seed 14 winning only 15% of their opening games, seed 15 winning 6%, and seed 16 winning just 1%.
The storyline stays consistent as you advance through the rounds, with the top four seeds boasting the highest success rates. Beyond that, the chances of winning decrease. Seeds 1-4 have dominated the title game spots, claiming 61 out of 70 possible spots.
The final has been reached by the team with the lowest seeding three times, with the highest being #8. Therefore, if you plan on betting against the high-seeded teams in March Madness, make sure you have a strong argument to support your decision.
How can you spot upsets at March Madness?
Every year, March Madness is full of surprising upsets that add to the excitement for fans, unless you happen to be on the losing end. These upsets can easily derail your chances of winning a bracket contest. However, if you’re able to predict some of these upsets in advance, it can greatly improve your performance. Here are some tips to help you spot potential upsets.
- Examine the game matchups: To uncover unexpected results, it is essential to thoroughly examine the games and recognize potential matchup difficulties. For example, a team with a strong defense but a lower overall performance may impede the advancement of a top-ranked team with an impressive record. In essence, it is important to be aware of situations that may present obstacles for the favored team.
- Evaluate recent performance: Would you prefer a team entering the tournament with a three-game losing streak or a squad with a seven-game winning streak? The latter is the obvious choice, but this decision cannot be based solely on overall records. As part of your assessment, take into account recent streaks and the overall records from the last 10 games for each team.
- When assessing matchups, consider if teams have faced each other before in the regular season and review the results. Also, take into account the strength of the schedule. For example, a top team with a good record may have only played against weaker opponents.
When looking for NCAA March Madness upsets, it is important to have reasonable expectations. While the underdog team can sometimes defeat the favorite, it typically requires ideal circumstances. Trust your research and consider choosing some underdogs, but be cautious about reaching for unlikely outcomes.
5 of the biggest March Madness upsets of all-time
In 1985, the March Madness tournament expanded to include 64 teams for the first time. The championship game featured an unexpected outcome as the #8 seed Villanova defeated the heavily favored #1 seed Georgetown Hoyas to win the title.
Despite often being considered the biggest upset in March Madness history, there have been many other unexpected outcomes over the years. Let’s take a look back at five of the most astonishing upsets in history.
1. 2018: #16 UMBC over #1 Virginia
UMBC made history during March Madness when they became the first #16 seed to defeat a #1 seed, Virginia. Despite being a tournament favorite, Virginia was ultimately outperformed by UMBC in a significant victory for the underdogs, with a final score of 74-54.
2. 2013: #15 Florida Gulf Coast over #2 Georgetown
Florida Gulf Coast surprised everyone with a 78-68 victory over Georgetown in the first round, but they didn’t stop there. The underdog team continued their Cinderella story by advancing to the Sweet 16 before their magical run came to an end.
3. 2012: #15 Lehigh over #2 Duke
The highly-regarded Blue Devils suffered a first-round defeat to Lehigh here and faced another shocking upset in 2014 when Mercer, a #3 seed, defeated them.
4. 1991: #15 Richmond over #2 Syracuse
The tournament saw a groundbreaking win for a #15 seed as Richmond pulled off a dramatic upset over Syracuse, a top contender, with a memorable 73-69 victory.
5. 1986: #14 Cleveland State over #3 Indiana
Against all expectations, Cleveland State managed to pull off a shocking upset against the legendary Bobby Knight-led Indiana team, securing a surprising 73-69 victory and advancing to the next round.
Lowest-seeded teams to Make Final Four
Since the expansion of March Madness in 1985, the Final Four has mostly been dominated by the top-four seeded teams, with only occasional appearances from teams seeded 5-8. Teams seeded below 8 have had significantly less representation in the Final Four.
During that time frame, only six teams seeded lower than 8th have advanced to the Final Four. Now, let’s delve into these teams and how they fared.
- LSU, ranked #11, suffered a defeat to Louisville in the semi-final match in 1986.
- George Mason, ranked #11, suffered a defeat at the hands of Florida in the 2006 semi-final.
- VCU lost to Butler in the semi-final in 2011.
- Wichita State’s #9 team suffered a loss to Louisville in the semi-final round in 2013.
- Syracuse, ranked #10, was defeated by North Carolina in the semi-final in 2016.
- In the semi-final of 2018, #11 Loyola-Chicago was defeated by Michigan.
Online betting rules for March Madness in Illinois
Each sportsbook in Illinois has its own individual house rules for college basketball betting. While there are some standard rules across the industry, there may be differences in certain areas. Here are the important points to keep in mind.
- Bets are considered live once the game commences. In the event of a delay, your wager may still stand as long as the game is completed within a reasonable timeframe. However, if the game is canceled entirely, all bets will be voided and your funds will be returned.
- All bet settlements are based on the official tournament results and statistics.
- If the tournament is cancelled for unforeseen reasons, any bets placed will be invalidated and refunded.
- If bets on spreads and totals are resolved at the exact number originally listed when the bet was placed, it will be considered a push and the bet amount will be returned.
While this covers the majority of important information, it is crucial to recognize that unforeseen problems could still occur. It is recommended to thoroughly review the house rules and terms and conditions of the online and mobile sportsbooks you plan to utilize.
Although online betting on Illinois schools is currently unavailable, you can still wager on teams like Loyola Chicago and Illinois at physical sportsbooks during March.
Tips for handicapping March Madness
There are many sports betting options available in the NCAA Men’s D1 Basketball Tournament. It may seem overwhelming with so many games to choose from, but remember that you don’t have to bet on every single game.
Instead, implement a strategic approach and focus on the competitions where you think you have an edge. Here are some additional tips to keep in mind as you get ready to analyze the upcoming March Madness tournament.
- Monitor the changes in betting lines: The odds for every game in the tournament are released ahead of time. These numbers will change from when they are first announced to the start of the game. Pay attention and interpret the signals provided by these shifts. Changes in the lines can help you determine where most bets are being placed and which side may require more backing.
- In assessing the tournament bracket, it is essential to prioritize current performance over overall record. While it is common to lean towards teams with better overall scores, it is important to consider the momentum of each team. A team with a strong record may be struggling in recent games, while a team with a weaker record could be on a winning streak.
- Focus on important statistics: There are numerous statistics available for analyzing college basketball, but not all of them are helpful in predicting winners. Rather than trying to absorb all of them, focus on the key factors such as true shooting percentage, defensive efficiency, and depth of rotation.
Utilizing handicapping strategies can help you reach your March Madness betting goals, but it is important to also recognize the potential risks involved. One key tip is to refrain from excessive betting. While March Madness is an exciting time, it can quickly turn sour if you exceed your limits and bet more than you can afford.
Stick to what works for you and create a strict budget. Allocate funds for each type of betting you enjoy. Remember to always bet wisely and avoid going overboard.
What to remember about March Madness upsets
March Madness is one of the most exciting sporting events of the year, drawing in a significant amount of betting action. The event’s excitement comes from its very core.
Throughout history, there have been countless unexpected victories where underdogs have defeated favorites. It is safe to assume that these surprising upsets will continue to occur from time to time in the future.
However, teams ranked 1-4 have consistently excelled at the tournament, making it challenging to uncover any hidden talents. If you are looking for potential hidden gems, consider these three key points:
- Look for any compatibility issues with stronger teams.
- Analyze recent games to identify underrated teams that are excelling.
- Examine common enemies and the outcomes of their conflicts.
Identifying possible upsets in March Madness can be challenging, but conducting thorough research can help in predicting some surprises that others may not see coming. It is important to maintain a balanced perspective and avoid creating unrealistic scenarios.