How to Bet on Baseball: Run Line Betting

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How to Bet on Baseball: Run Line Betting

The MLB season is a thrilling adventure packed with exciting games at every corner. The excitement begins on opening day and continues all the way to the World Series.

Sports betting has been legalized in several states, including Illinois, providing bettors with a variety of options to place wagers on each scheduled game.

The run line bet is a popular choice that functions like the point spread in other sports, but it has distinct nuances that need to be understood.

We have everything you need to know covered, from understanding how this bet works to identifying key factors on the odds board and how to handicap it. Let’s begin by exploring how the run line operates.

What is a run line bet in baseball?

The run line bet, found on sportsbook apps and websites, is a commonly used way to wager on MLB games. It is available for every game, in addition to moneyline and totals bets.

When betting the run line, bettors can choose to bet on the favorite with a certain number of runs deducted or the underdog with the same number of runs added. The typical number used for run line bets is 1.5 runs.

To win the bet, the team you choose must either win by two runs if they are the favorite or cover the run line by staying within one run or winning if they are the underdog.

How to read MLB betting odds

Online sportsbooks in Illinois will offer odds for all MLB games, allowing bettors to easily compare their options. The three main types of bets will be clearly displayed in each game listing, with additional betting choices accessible by clicking on the game. Here is an example of how a typical game listing might look.

Team Run line Moneyline Total
Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-120) -130 O 7.5 (-110)
Chicago White Sox +1.5 (+100) +110 U 7.5 (-110)

The away team is typically listed above the home team in the listings, although there are occasional neutral site matchups that may not follow this pattern. Each team’s name is accompanied by the odds and lines for three types of bets: the run line, moneyline, and total.

The Twins are favored to win by 1.5 runs according to the run line, which is denoted by the negative number next to their name. In sports betting, negative numbers indicate the favorites, while positive numbers represent the underdogs on the run line.

The run line wager shows the odds next to the 1.5 in parentheses, indicating the Twins are the favored team on the moneyline as we move further to the right.

Odds for MLB run line bets explained

Sportsbooks typically begin by setting the standard for spread bets at -110 on both sides, but these odds may change as more bets are placed.

Usually, the changes in shifts are quite small, such as one side going up to -115 while the other side drops to -105. In contrast to a spread bet, the run line has much larger differences in odds between each side.

For example:

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-120)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-150)

The Cubs are now the clear favorite on the run line according to the public, leading sportsbooks to adjust the number.

Note that the run line odds can vary between different operators. For example, DraftKings Sportsbook in Illinois may have -125 odds for a team, while FanDuel Sportsbook could have -135 odds for the same team.

Before betting on the run line, it is a good idea to consider various options. Comparing different sportsbooks can help you spot any inconsistencies in the lines. Even small differences can add up in the long run.

How to place a run line bet in Illinois

The best online sports betting websites provide easy-to-use platforms, making it simple to place a run line bet. Begin by locating the game you want to bet on.

Sportsbooks will offer betting odds for each game on the schedule. Let’s take a look at our usual game listing.

Team Run line Moneyline Total
Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-120) -130 O 7.5 (-110)
Chicago White Sox +1.5 (+100) +110 U 7.5 (-110)

To place a bet, click on the box that matches your choice. Select the Twins with a negative run line if that’s what you prefer, or pick the White Sox with a positive run line if you lean towards that side.

Once you choose your selection, it will be automatically placed on your betting slip. Simply input your stake, verify the details, and click submit to finalize your bet.

What are alternate run lines?

Typically, run line bets have a standard of 1.5 runs, but betting operators may offer different run lines for bettors to consider, with adjusted odds depending on the direction of the line. For example, the line could be set at 2.5 runs.

Washington Nationals +2.5 (-170)
Atlanta Braves -2.5 (+200)

In this competition, the Nationals can cover the run line by staying within two runs or winning outright, while the Braves must win by three or more runs to cover.

If you are well-versed in a game that may result in a one-sided outcome, considering alternate run lines could be a smart decision. These can provide extra backing for the underdogs as well. However, as demonstrated in our example, the odds may result in lower profits.

Online rules for run line betting in Illinois

Most sportsbook operators in Illinois generally follow the same guidelines, with some variations in specific cases. Here are some basic things to know about betting on the run line.

  • If the starting pitchers are changed, bets with a listed pitcher option will be voided.
  • When the game starts, all bets are considered active.
  • Games that are delayed or postponed due to weather may still be considered live if they are expected to resume shortly. However, if they are rescheduled for a later date, they will be voided.
  • Settlement of bets depends on official league data.

This will cover most cases, but there may be rare exceptional circumstances. Different sportsbooks may have differing approaches to handling these situations. To ensure full understanding, it is recommended to review the MLB house rules at the sportsbooks where you wager.

MLB run line betting examples

Before placing a bet on the run line, it is important to become familiar with how it works. To help understand this type of bet, let’s examine a game between NL Central rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-130)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+110)

Oddsmakers have the Cubs as the favorites on the run line in this game. Chicago must win by at least two runs to cover the spread. For example, a 5-3 victory would cover the spread, but a close 3-2 win would not.

Milwaukee must keep their deficit under 1.5 runs. A 4-3 loss would be within acceptable limits, but a 7-2 defeat would not meet the requirement. The odds suggest that the Brewers are more likely to keep the game close.

After that, we will turn our attention to the AL Central for an exciting matchup between two division rivals. The Cleveland Indians are set to go head-to-head with the Chicago White Sox on the road in this highly anticipated game.

Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+120)
Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-140)

The visiting team is considered the favorite in this situation, but the odds indicate that more money is being placed on the White Sox to either keep the game within one run or win. A 5-3 win for the Indians would be profitable for Cleveland bettors, but not for those supporting Chicago.

In order for bettors to win on the run line, the White Sox must either lose by a score of 6-5 or win the game outright. Unlike the moneyline, which only focuses on the outcome of the game, the run line takes into account the margin of victory.

Similar to a point spread, it has the ability to level the playing field between teams of varying skill levels in order to increase the excitement of the game.

Calculating payouts for run line bets

The potential payout for a successful run line bet is determined by the odds listed on the board. Once you choose your bet and enter the amount, the sportsbook will display the potential return if your bet is a winner.

This offers a quick way to see possible returns, but make sure not to click submit until you are fully ready. For another simple way to calculate returns, there are many free handicapping calculators easily accessible online.

Additionally, you have the option to make some simple calculations to approximate potential figures. For example, in the case of negative odds such as -120, the odds value indicates the amount required to bet in order to make a profit of $100 if successful. Thus, in this scenario, a bet of $120 would be necessary.

Positive odds indicate how much profit you can make from a $100 bet. For example, with odds of +125, a winning $100 bet would result in a profit of $125.

There are formulas available that can quickly calculate returns. Two different formulas are used based on the direction of the odds. In the case of negative odds, the equation uses the absolute value of the odds figure.

  • Negative odds: Return equals wager amount divided by (Odds divided by 100)
  • In the case of positive odds, the return equals the wager amount multiplied by the odds divided by 100.

In each case, divide the odds by 100. Next, if the odds are positive, multiply the result by the wager. If the odds are negative, divide the wager by the result obtained in the first step.

How to handicap the MLB run line

When betting on the run line, it’s important to consider more than just the outcome of the game. Understanding the potential margin of victory is key, and may require some practice to fully grasp. Here are some tips to help you achieve consistent success with run line betting.

  • Understand the meaning of odds: As more bets are made, the odds for run line bets will adjust. Pay attention to any notable changes and analyze the situation for insights into where the money is being placed. For example, if a book increases interest in one side while decreasing interest in the other, it is probable that they are trying to encourage more bets on the former side.
  • Revised: Take a closer look at the recent scores and runs given up by both teams. Remember, the MLB season is a long one, not a quick race. Teams will have ups and downs in their offensive and defensive performances. It’s important to not just focus on the overall season statistics, but also to consider how the teams have been performing in their last few games. This will give you a better understanding of their current form and could help predict any unexpected results.

After achieving a stable system, it is common to feel content. However, it is important to remember that the task is not finished. Additionally, there are potential pitfalls to avoid that could impede your progress. Here are three traps to stay away from.

  • Do not let your emotions dictate your bets: It’s okay to have a favorite team, but when it comes to gambling, loyalty should not cloud your judgement. Rooting for your team does not guarantee financial success, but making smart decisions does. Base your betting choices on the most likely outcome, not your personal biases. If you struggle to bet against your team, it’s better to skip that match and focus on other opportunities.
  • Don’t overestimate your skills: It’s possible to improve your handicapping abilities to a high level, but be careful not to become arrogant. No bettor is infallible, including yourself. Confidence is important, but stay humble and be prepared for occasional setbacks.
  • Instead of giving in to the urge to bet on every game during the long MLB season with multiple days of full team schedules, resist the temptation. Analyzing each game thoroughly requires a significant amount of time. Instead of trying to bet on every game, take a strategic approach and focus on the matchups where you have a clear advantage.

What to remember about run line betting

The run line bet is a popular choice for MLB betting, functioning much like the point spread bet seen in other sports. Bettors can choose to back the favorite with a certain number of runs subtracted, or place their support behind the underdog with runs added to their line.

In order for your bet to be successful, the team you choose must exceed the run line, which is usually set at 1.5 runs and is different from spreads. However, some operators may offer alternate run lines under the “additional bets” section for certain games.

The odds on both sides of the run line change according to betting activity, allowing you to shop around for the best price. While it may take some time to learn how to handicap the run line, it can be a useful tool in developing a successful MLB betting strategy.