Now that legal sports betting is available in Illinois, you have the chance to place bets for entertainment and potentially make a profit. There are legitimate and legal ways to earn money through sports wagering.

However, not all opportunities are equally advantageous. In truth, some available bets are just bad choices for gamblers.

How can you identify bets that fall into this category? We will help you understand what to watch out for. There are specific wagers known as sucker bets that can gradually drain your bankroll.

Although guessing can be fun in sports betting, placing too many high-risk bets can result in more deposits than withdrawals of winnings.

What’s a sucker bet?

First and foremost, it is important to recognize the distinction: a sucker bet is not just a bet that ends in a loss. Losses are a natural part of sports betting. Even the most skilled bettors will experience losses, and those who claim they never lose are not being truthful.

A sucker bet is a wager that, upon careful consideration of the odds, appears illogical. It could be a bet with winning odds as unlikely as capturing lightning in a bottle, or one where the potential reward does not match the level of risk.

To easily identify a sucker bet, consider the potential payout offered by the sportsbook. If the chance to turn a small amount into a large sum seems unlikely, it’s likely not a good bet.

Return vs. reality

For example, consider a multi-leg parlay where you need to accurately predict each selection to win. Let’s assume that your chances of predicting each selection correctly are 50/50. The corresponding odds for this bet are based on the payout.

Parlay Size	Odds at 50% Correct	Sportsbook Odds Payout
2 legs	3 to 1	2.6 to 1
3 legs	7 to 1	6 to 1
4 legs	15 to 1	12 to 1
5 legs	31 to 1	24 to 1
6 legs	63 to 1	48 to 1
7 legs	127 to 1	92 to 1
8 legs	255 to 1	176 to 1
9 legs	511 to 1	337 to 1
10 legs	1,023 to 1	645 to 1
11 legs	2,047 to 1	1,233 to 1

As more selections are added to the betting ticket, the likelihood of making a correct prediction decreases. Additionally, the payout from the sportsbook is lower than what would be expected from a fair 50/50 bet.

Placing a small parlay bet for a chance at a big win is harmless, but consistently betting a large amount on unlikely outcomes can result in major losses.

How to calculate implied probability

Analyzing sports betting odds can offer a plethora of valuable information. Simply glancing at the odds will show us the favored team and the underdog, but there is deeper analysis to be done. This practice also allows us to calculate potential winnings from successful bets and gain insight into the sportsbook’s view of the likelihood of a particular outcome.

First, let’s discuss implied probability, also known as the latter. To illustrate, let’s consider a simple college football moneyline bet where one team is heavily favored.

Boston College +450

Notre Dame -500

The oddsmakers predict that the Fighting Irish have a significant advantage over BC. This suggests a high probability of the Fighting Irish winning. This probability can be calculated using the following two formulas:

• If the odds are positive, the implied probability can be calculated by taking 100 divided by the sum of the odds and 100, and then multiplying the result by 100.
• When the odds are negative (disregarding the minus sign), the implied probability can be found by dividing the odds by the sum of the odds and 100, then multiplying the result by 100.

What are the chances that either Boston College or Notre Dame will win the game? After crunching the numbers, we can determine the following outcome:

• The calculation for Boston College’s percentage is 18.1%.
• At Notre Dame, scoring 500 out of 600 equates to 83.3%.

Notre Dame is the clear favorite to win based on the odds, with the implied probability reinforcing this. While BC might have a chance to pull off an upset, the odds are not in their favor. Consider this when searching for potential underdogs.

Figure out returns from sports betting odds

Learning to calculate potential returns from the odds board may require some time and effort, but there are specific formulas that can assist in this process. These formulas vary depending on whether the odds are in favor or against the outcome.

• To calculate potential profit when odds are positive, multiply the amount wagered by the odds and divide by 100.
• To calculate potential profit when odds are negative, divide the wager amount by the odds divided by 100.

Let’s take another look at how a moneyline bet works in an NFL game. Imagine a hypothetical NFL game with much closer odds.

New York Giants +110

Chicago Bears -130

If we decide to bet $100 on the Bears game, here is how the potential winnings would look from each perspective:

• The Giants cost $100 with a 10% increase, resulting in a total of $110.
• To calculate the price of bears, divide $100 by (130 divided by 100) to get $76.92.

It is not advisable to solely rely on the potential return when making betting decisions. Understanding the risk-to-reward ratio can help you make more informed wagering choices.

Importance of line shopping

While the sports betting odds and lines on popular Illinois betting apps may seem alike, they are not always identical. Various factors, such as pricing inefficiencies and market activity, can influence the odds available to the public.

Although it’s okay to have a couple of favorite sportsbooks, it’s important to regularly compare odds to ensure you’re getting the best possible chances of winning. In the current competitive landscape, it’s definitely worth the effort to seek out any potential discrepancies in odds.

In Illinois, DraftKings may offer one price on a heavily favored team, while FanDuel could provide a more appealing line. While this may not seem like a big difference at first, it can add up over time.

Potential sucker bets

It can be difficult to spot a sucker bet at your favorite sportsbooks, as they may not be clearly labeled. Additionally, a betting strategy that works for you may not be successful for others. So, how can we determine which bets are sucker bets? Here are some important areas to watch out for.

Parlays, pleasers and teasers

These three types of bets can be classified together because they all require multiple outcomes to be predicted on a single betting slip. As we have discussed before with parlays, the more choices you include in your bet, the lower the chances are of all of them being correct.

When placing pleaser and teaser bets, bettors have the option to adjust the spread in their favor for two or more outcomes. While this allows for some control over the bet, ultimately, multiple results must still go in the bettor’s favor in order to win.

Making multi-leg bets can add excitement to a set of games. Betting on a few teams, like two or three, gives you a decent chance of winning. But be careful not to get tempted to bet big just to win.

Huge moneyline favorites

Some people think that placing a bet on the favorite to win on the moneyline is a sure thing. Although it may be difficult for the underdog to pull off an upset, it is still a possibility. When the two teams compete, the result is uncertain.

Betting on big moneyline favorites may result in more wins than losses, but the returns are not very high. For example, a $100 bet on a moneyline favorite with odds of -450 would only yield a return of $22.22.

While not necessarily disastrous, imagine a situation where the unexpected happens and the clear underdog comes out on top. In this case, you’ve lost $100 on a bet that you thought was a sure thing. If the potential reward doesn’t outweigh the risk in the grand scheme of things, it may end up being a foolish wager.

Unrealistic props, futures and live bets

Browsing through the betting categories may reveal some highly profitable results. These high odds are often found in bets with a wide range of options, making them potentially lucrative.

This is because the chances of a specific event happening are very slim. For example, think about placing bets on the Super Bowl odds for the worst team in the league or betting on a player who rarely plays to score two goals in an NHL game. It’s okay to dream, but be cautious about investing a large sum of money in these unlikely scenarios.

Spreads that don’t make sense

To begin, it is important to note that predicting point spreads is a difficult task. The experts at reputable sportsbooks have honed their skills, making it tough to consistently choose the right side for your bets.

So, when does the ‘sucker’ aspect come into play? There are two scenarios in which it becomes relevant. Firstly, when the spread seems irrational at first, such as a lesser NFL team being favored by a field goal. If the line stays the same all week, the book is trying to convey a message.

It is wise to pay attention and do further research before jumping to conclusions. This is especially important when dealing with a one-point spread scenario. If you can’t find a game with a 1.5-point spread and still want to bet, consider looking at the moneyline as it could provide better value.

Sports you don’t know anything about

It’s okay to explore and try betting on different sports, but it’s best to take it slow and not jump in all at once. While you might have some beginner’s luck, it’s not sustainable in the long run.

If you find yourself heavily involved in a sport that you know nothing about, it may be wise to take a step back and assess the situation. In simpler terms, it’s akin to throwing away your money. Since most rational individuals wouldn’t do such a thing, it’s probably a good idea to reassess your involvement.

It is recommended to begin betting on a new sport with small stakes and to be prepared for potential losses. If you find that you are successful and enjoy the sport, you can gradually increase your bets. However, some individuals exhaust their accounts before understanding this strategy.

Are there times when a sucker bet makes sense?

In every scenario we’ve examined, there are specific situations where each type of bet is suitable. For example, adding a parlay ticket could enhance the excitement of an NFL Sunday, while incorporating a teaser or pleaser bet could make an NBA betting night more enjoyable.

During a college football Saturday, it can be wise to lean towards backing big moneyline favorites at times. Placing a small wager on a prop bet for a favorite player or a future bet on your hometown team isn’t a bad idea either.

Keep in mind that placing large bets on unlikely outcomes can quickly diminish your funds. If you choose to allocate a small portion of your bankroll, such as 2%, for risky bets, make sure that your overall winnings make up for the money spent on these wagers.

What are the best bets to focus on?

If you decide to set aside a small portion of your budget for entertainment and the chance of a big win, make sure the rest of your financial plan is carefully thought out. Wagering on individual games can help you maintain a level of consistency.

Therefore, they form the basis for many effective handicapping approaches. If you prefer spreads, prioritize them, but also consider the potential benefits of moneylines. If you excel at totals bets, they can also be a profitable area to specialize in.

Once you have built a solid foundation and have some money set aside for gambling, it is okay to make a small risky bet from time to time. However, make sure you have enough funds to support it and do not let yourself get too carried away.

What to remember about sucker bets

When placing bets in sports betting, be aware that some wagers heavily favor the house, making them essentially sucker bets. Continuously placing these types of bets will inevitably lead to your funds being depleted.

To recognize a risky bet, be cautious of bets that promise high rewards for minimal investment. Consider that the bookmaker is likely offering a large payout because the likelihood of that event happening is very slim.

Be cautious with multi-outcome bets as they can be entertaining and occasionally profitable, but they should not be relied on as a consistent source of winnings due to their lower cash-out rate compared to the cost of placing them.

Participating in speculative activities can be acceptable as long as you keep your expectations in check and only wager small amounts. However, individuals who are drawn in by the allure of making large bets on these opportunities may end up depositing money more often than they should.